As the cryptocurrency community eagerly awaits October, all eyes are on the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This regulatory agency holds the power to make decisions that could significantly impact the entire crypto industry. In particular, two key rulings are expected to shape the future of the industry and generate a ripple effect for everyone involved.

On August 29, the District of Columbia Court of Appeals delivered a monumental victory to asset manager Grayscale in its case against the SEC. The court ruled that the SEC failed to provide a valid reason for denying Grayscale’s application and ordered a review of the application. Following this decision, the SEC has been put in a position where it must decide whether or not to appeal the ruling by October 13, exactly 45 days from the court’s judgment.

An Appeal or Acceptance: Ramifications for the Crypto Community
Should the SEC choose to appeal, the crypto community’s anticipation for a Spot Bitcoin ETF may be further extended, challenging the optimism that has been building. On the other hand, if the SEC decides against appealing, it will establish legal precedence, affirming the correlation between the spot and futures market. Additionally, the argument that the spot market is more vulnerable to fraudulent activities and manipulation will lose its credibility.

Aside from the Grayscale ruling, October holds another significant deadline for various pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications. The SEC will be required to make determinations—approve, deny, or delay—for these applications. Several notable dates include October 16 and 17, the deadlines for a decision on the Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust and multiple other funds.

Another Delay Expected
It is widely anticipated that the SEC will once again opt for a delay in its decision regarding these applications. This recurrent pattern of delaying important rulings serves to prolong the uncertainty surrounding these ETFs. As a result, the next deadline for a decision on these applications may not arrive until the following year. The continuous postponement tactic employed by the SEC indicates that the earliest final response may not materialize until January 10, 2024 – the final deadline for the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.

The SEC’s decisions have a significant impact on the crypto industry as a whole. A prolonged wait for a Spot Bitcoin ETF, caused by an appeal in the Grayscale case or continued delays in other applications, would undoubtedly dampen the mood within the crypto community. Conversely, a clear acceptance of the correlation between spot and futures markets, coupled with a rejection of the SEC’s argument about susceptibility to fraud and manipulation, would bolster confidence in the industry.

The SEC’s forthcoming decisions hold immense weight within the crypto industry. The outcome of the Grayscale case appeal and the delayed rulings on spot Bitcoin ETF applications will shape the industry’s future. Whether these decisions lead to further delays or provide concrete resolutions, they will undeniably have a profound impact on the growth, maturity, and regulatory landscape of the crypto market. Stakeholders and enthusiasts alike eagerly await the SEC’s choices and brace themselves for the ramifications that lie ahead.


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