Bitcoin, the most valuable cryptocurrency, is currently facing a crucial moment in its price trajectory. A bearish head-and-shoulder pattern has been identified by Tony Spilotro, a renowned analyst and former Twitter and NewsBTC Editorial Director. This pattern, if it unfolds as expected, could have serious consequences for Bitcoin’s bullish prospects, potentially pushing prices down below a critical support line of $18,000 or even lower in the upcoming weeks. However, given the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin’s price history, traders are advised to cautiously observe the situation before making any definitive predictions.

At the moment, Bitcoin appears to be stable and is adhering to an overall upward trend when observed from a top-down perspective. Notably, the cryptocurrency is currently trading within the range established between June and July 2023, as depicted in the daily chart. Despite initial optimism for a price recovery surpassing the highs of July 2023, Bitcoin has been moving sideways, unable to breach the $31,800 resistance level but managing to hold above the $28,000 support level. It is worth noting that any breakout above $32,000 with substantial trading volume has the potential to generate significant demand, thereby acting as a catalyst for price gains towards the $35,000 mark or higher.

While the failure of sellers to drive Bitcoin’s prices lower might be considered bullish from the perspective of buyers, the impending formation of a head-and-shoulder pattern in the weekly chart raises doubts about the bullish outlook. Traders are cautiously optimistic because the candlestick arrangement, particularly in the weekly timeframe, suggests a vulnerability that could negatively impact market sentiment and hinder sustained growth. It is essential to monitor the development of this pattern to get a comprehensive understanding of Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Bitcoin’s price outlook is further complicated by several fundamental factors that will shape its journey in the coming days. In the United States, inflation rates are relatively high compared to the benchmark rate of 2%, which may lead the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate hikes in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Despite reasonably stable labor conditions and moderate inflation, the recent rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, bringing interest rates to the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, emphasize the central bank’s commitment to combat inflation and maintain economic stability.

The potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy on cryptocurrencies is reminiscent of the events in 2022 when Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, plunging from its peaks in 2021 to below $16,000 in late 2022. While Bitcoin has the potential to serve as a safe haven asset, similar to gold, during times of crisis, analysts still perceive it as a “risky” investment. Thus, the future of Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains uncertain, as it will heavily depend on the interplay between macroeconomic factors and market sentiment.

The Bullish Perspective: Miner Rewards Halving in 2024

Despite the prevailing doubts and uncertainties in Bitcoin’s price outlook, there is a bullish lens to consider. In 2024, Bitcoin will undergo a halving of its miner rewards, reducing the amount from 6.25 BTC. This reduction is set to create a supply shock, making Bitcoin scarcer, and potentially bolstering its price in the second half of next year. Such a development will undoubtedly capture the attention of traders and investors alike, as they closely monitor its effects on the cryptocurrency market.

As Bitcoin stands at this critical juncture, traders and market participants are advised to exercise caution and maintain a vigilant approach. The unfolding of the bearish head-and-shoulder pattern in the weekly chart and the complex relationship between fundamental factors and market sentiment will define Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Regardless, the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies promises continuous excitement and opportunities for those willing to navigate its turbulent waters.

![Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView](https://www.example.com/image.png)

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