Bitcoin (BTC) made gradual progress towards the $31,000 mark on July 12, as the highly anticipated macroeconomic event of the week loomed. BTC’s price momentum was closely monitored by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. Despite its steady rise, the largest cryptocurrency exhibited minimal volatility at the beginning of the week, with clearly defined local range highs and lows. Traders and analysts hoped for a reshuffling of the market following the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, which was expected to show a slowdown in U.S. inflation, with a projected score of approximately 3.2% – the lowest since March 2021. Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro noted that the Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan, and Truflation all anticipated a similar number, indicating a consensus among various sources.
Flash Volatility and Bitcoin’s Trajectory
While flash volatility could potentially deceive traders, Bitcoin has a tendency to determine its trajectory shortly after the release of economic data. Daan Crypto Trades explained that there was a likelihood of a “Darth Maul” candle, where both high and low timeframes experience significant fluctuations right after the CPI release. However, the real direction for the day is often chosen after this initial volatility, which could result in Bitcoin targeting either the 31.1K or 30.2K level. DecenTrader, a trading suite, pointed out that the four previous CPI data releases followed a similar pattern for Bitcoin, involving volatility in both directions to liquidate traders before the price reverted back to its pre-CPI release level.
Potential Bull Run and BTC/USD Monthly Chart
Looking at longer timeframes, popular trader Moustache considered the possibility of a classic bull run repeating itself. Moustache observed that the BTC/USD monthly chart was on the verge of breaking out above its 20-period simple moving average (SMA). In the past, whenever Bitcoin closed above the SMA 20 line on a monthly basis, it confirmed the start of a bull run. Moustache noted that during the following two years, Bitcoin never dropped below this line (except during the COVID-19 crash). This current situation was seen as favorable, leading Moustache to comment that things were “looking good” for Bitcoin.
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